2844 Tupper Dr · Bay City, MI 48706

$172,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1977 0.60 ac lot $99/sqft · 28% below area Est $250k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Monitor Township 4 be, 2.5 bath with full part finished basement ranch is immediately available. Home has fenced yard, Central air, oversized 2.5 car garage with city utilities. Furnace has been updated. Spacious deck and fenced yard. Basement has been partially finished. This is a great value for Monitor Township. This property is easy to show. Home must be on market for 10 days prior to acceptance of offer. have your verification of funds or pre-approval ready.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Spacious deck
• Updated furnace

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• CENTRAL AIR
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• UPDATED FURNACE
• SPACIOUS DECK
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Acreage: 0.6

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Parking for 3 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; One-story structure; Built in 1977; Basement present; Frontage on a road
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation; Year built: 1977
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Fenced yard; Porch; Located on a dead-end road; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level, 15 x 21; Range/Oven; Refrigerator; Vinyl flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom; Main-level bedroom: 19 x 17, carpet; Main-level bedroom: 11 x 9, carpet; Main-level bedroom: 9 (width), carpet; Main-level bedroom: 10 x 11, carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Wood flooring in living room; Vinyl flooring in bathrooms and kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One additional lavatory (entry); Main-level bathrooms with vinyl flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Gas water heater; Central A/C
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Main-level living spaces; Partially finished basement with interior access and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility access; Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-990/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $143,805 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,936
• List price: $172,900
• Delta: -30.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3329 S Huron	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,632 (-6%)	13mo	$234,000	$143	58
2900 Hyde Park	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-10%)	8mo	$65,000	$41	54
3532 Two Mile Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+1%)	22mo	$247,500	$141	46
109 W Grove St	0.55mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,940 (+12%)	3mo	$197,400	$102	46
2976 Lupine Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+12%)	6mo	$215,000	$111	44
3372 W Woodland Dr	0.51mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+9%)	16mo	$219,900	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,233
• Equity at exit: $25,780

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-35,554
• Equity at exit: $14,949

Cash invested: $48,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $158,333

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-34	+0% $-82	+5% $-131	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-139	+0% $-82	+5% $-26	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-38	base $-82	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,225
• Closing costs: $5,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $172,900 Active 472-char remark
2. 2010-09-22
   soldstatus $119,000
3. 2010-09-03
   soldstatus $119,000
4. 2009-09-21
   listed $124,900
5. 2005-02-10
   soldstatus $126,500
6. 2005-02-08
   soldstatus $126,500
7. 2004-10-11
   listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,685
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,030
• Taxable loss: −$3,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $-39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+33.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $172,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-03 Sold (MLS) $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-21 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records
• 2005-02-08 Sold (MLS) $126,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-10-11 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.