2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
800 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Manufactured
· Active
· 341 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,126/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$71
Tax + insurance
−$22
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$236
Net cashflow
$796/mo
Annual
$9,554/yr
Cap rate
77.06%
Cash-on-cash
252.74%
DSCR
12.25
1% rule
8.34%
Cash to close
$3,780
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $14k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $12k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $93 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $405 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#78 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
Santa Cruz Valley Union High School District (4454) (town): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #382 of 501 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Valley Union High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 381 statewide, top 61%, 340 students, 78% FRL).
Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 77.1% vs local median 1.3% in Eloy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QW7SDV48V7MNBP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29