31351 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln

Fulshear, TX 77441

$260,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$749
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-428/mo
• Annual: $-5,138/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.0% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 13065% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.