31351 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln · Fulshear, TX 77441

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,242 sqft lot 2-car garage $206/sqft · at area comps Est $313k · 17% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming single-story home, move-in ready and designed with comfort and style in mind. The open floorplan features fresh, neutral finishes throughout, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The spacious eat-in kitchen includes a breakfast bar, and clear sightlines into the family room, so the cook can stay connected with everyone. The primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat, walk-in closet, and a private en-suite bathroom perfect for unwinding. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 13065% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,368 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,965
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31334 Black Forest Xing	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+7%)	14mo	$278,000	$206	72
31415 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	8mo	$264,900	$189	72
32543 Summer Vista Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+6%)	1mo	$260,990	$196	69
32514 Lantana Fields Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+6%)	2mo	$259,990	$195	69
7747 Rolling Stone Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,393 (+11%)	8mo	$300,000	$215	62
31727 Valor Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-3%)	13mo	$289,990	$237	60
31622 Stately Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (+11%)	3mo	$309,610	$221	54
31731 Regal Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (+11%)	4mo	$314,990	$225	52
31723 Regal Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (+7%)	15mo	$343,150	$255	51
31739 Regal Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,406 (+12%)	15mo	$309,990	$220	42
8407 Balding Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+13%)	10mo	$265,000	$186	37
31610 Brown Fern Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+13%)	14mo	$249,900	$175	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,550
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-124,619
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $301,995 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$640 /mo · $7,685/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,727

Max offer price $184,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-355	+0% $-428	+5% $-502	+10% $-575
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-514	+0% $-428	+5% $-342	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-362	base $-428	+0.5pp $-496	+1.0pp $-564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31351 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	47d	1	0.04mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	139d	1	0.11mi
7422 French Quarter Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,895	$1.37	60d	1	0.27mi
7422 French Quarter Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,895	$1.37	31d	1	0.27mi
30509 Front St Fulshear, TX	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,872	$1.67	50d	1	0.99mi
693 Canvas Ave Fulshear, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1187	$2,575	$2.17	0d	16	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $500Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: PlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHVAC efficiency features
• Interior features: Ceiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $260,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $260,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-07-05
   days on market $260,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $260,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $260,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    days on market $260,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-24
    days on market $260,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $260,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $260,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $260,000 Active 11 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $260,000 Active 10 DOM
20. 2026-06-13
    days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    remarks 498-char remark
24. 2026-06-07
    listed $260,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,685 · $640/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,685 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$7,685
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$9,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,300–$18,900 screening

This move-in ready single-story home features a good condition with modern finishes and a clean exterior. Minor touch-ups and maintenance can further enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulshear, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $500Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: PlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHVAC efficiency features
• Interior features: Ceiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-27 Listed for Rent $1,975 HARMLS
• 2026-06-26 Rental Removed $1,975 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed for Rent $1,975 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Rental Removed $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-01 Listed for Rent $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-31 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $1,925 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-13 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-14 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+34.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,685 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.