3430 Fox Ridge St

Winter Haven, FL 33884

$245,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $117/mo
• Annual: $1,408/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (14.8% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $209k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank E. Brigham Academy (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 564 students, 34% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Polk average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $245k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.