3430 Fox Ridge St · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 6,499 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traditional sale. A MUST SEE! Beautiful 3/2 home in a great location. It features granite counter tops, a fireplace, spacious kitchen, double vanity sink in master bathroom, beautiful backyard to enjoy with family and friends. A new roof, new A/C unit. Close to major roads, restaurants and shopping.

Key facts

• Private porch
• Open floor plan
• French doors

Tags

• PRIVATE PORCH
• FRENCH DOORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Home faces north
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot (approx. 65 x 100)
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; French doors; Private mailbox; Wood fencing; Lot is cleared, landscaped, and in county; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank E. Brigham Academy (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 564 students, 34% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Polk average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $245k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,791 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,582
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,940
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,743/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	23d	1	0.28mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	14d	1	0.45mi
133 Lameraux Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,550	$1.50	23d	1	0.51mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	0.66mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,175	$2.34	3d	24	0.67mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,800	$1.76	3d	8	0.73mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	23d	1	0.91mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	0.95mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.01mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	3d	1	1.03mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	14d	24	1.03mi
7903 Waterview Way Unit 7903 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	23d	1	1.07mi
408 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,100	$1.43	23d	1	1.16mi
3601 Cypress Gardens Rd Unit 6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	23d	1	1.16mi
5202 Waterview Way #5202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	23d	1	1.20mi
116 Holmes Pl Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1875	$2,800	$1.49	23d	1	1.21mi
415 Laurel Cove Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,725	$1.40	3d	1	1.21mi
715 Magnolia Pl Unit 715 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,650	$1.53	23d	1	1.23mi
1015 Mahaffey Rd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,948	$1.76	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 614-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,743
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $2,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+272.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-02 Sold (MLS) $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-12 Price Changed $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-10 Price Changed $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-29 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-19 Sold (MLS) $44,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-22 Price Changed $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-22 Price Changed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-22 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,743 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.