5701 Live Oak #15

Kelseyville, CA 95451

$61,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Built 1983 · Land · Active · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,713/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$320
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $865/mo
• Annual: $10,382/yr
• Cap rate: 24.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.45%
• DSCR: 3.91
• 1% rule: 2.81%
• Cash to close: $17,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $61k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $61k).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $422 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,059 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 2.2% in Kelseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.