4346 4th St

Luna Pier, MI 48157

$59,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,098
• Tax + insurance: −$579
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-733/mo
• Annual: $-8,799/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $58,629

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-733 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#227 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mason Consolidated Schools (Monroe) (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #155 of 540 in MI (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $59k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.