90 Arrowhead Beach Club Rd

Lake Ozark, MO 65049

$280,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 732 sqft · Built 1947 · Other · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-927/mo
• Annual: $-11,128/yr
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.19%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.33%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-927 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (67.1% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (67.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#283 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• School Of The Osage (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #112 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Osage Upper Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 437 students, 46% FRL); Osage Middle (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 485 students, 42% FRL); Osage High (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 666 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 0.1% in Lake Ozark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.