90 Arrowhead Beach Club Rd · Lake Ozark, MO 65049

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 732 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1947 9,148 sqft lot $383/sqft · at area comps

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 Bed, 2 Bath Lakeview Home - Fully Furnished & Move-In Ready. Come enjoy lake living in this quaint, conveniently located subdivision. You'll appreciate the easy access from this prime location to all shopping, schools, entertainment & restaurants. This home boasts a warm welcome from the glow of the fireplace along the wood ceilings and floors. Also offering character, comfort, and broad spanning beautiful lake views. Step outside to two spacious decks overlooking the lake, perfect for morning coffee or evening sunsets. The home also features an enclosed patio for additional relaxing or entertaining space year-round. This property is fully and tastefully furnished, even a washer/dryer making it a true turnkey opportunity—just bring your suitcase. Isn't it time you start enjoying lake life? Invest today and begin making years of memories tomorrow.

Key facts

• Two spacious decks
• Enclosed patio
• Turnkey opportunity

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS DECKS
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• FULLY AND TASTEFULLY FURNISHED
• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-927 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (67.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (67.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#283 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• School Of The Osage (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #112 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,987 (67.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.19%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 25.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $568,129
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -50.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-104,595
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-167,778
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65049

• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 25.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $116,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-769	-5% $-848	+0% $-927	+5% $-1,007	+10% $-1,086
Rent	-10% $-1,000	-5% $-964	+0% $-927	+5% $-891	+10% $-855
Rate	-1.0pp $-786	-0.5pp $-856	base $-927	+0.5pp $-1,000	+1.0pp $-1,074

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $280,000 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed, 2 Bath Lakeview Home - Fully Furnished & Move-In Ready. Come enjoy lake living in this quaint, conveniently located subdivision. You'll appreciate the easy access from this prime location to all shopping, schools, entertainment & restaurants. This home boasts a warm welcome from the glow of the fireplace along the wood ceilings and floors. Also offering character, comfort, and broad spanning beautiful lake views. Step outside to two spacious decks overlooking the lake, perfect for morning coffee or evening sunsets. The home also features an enclosed patio for additional relaxing or entertaining space year-round. This property is fully and tastefully furnished, even a washer/dryer making it a true turnkey opportunity—just bring your suitcase. Isn't it time you start enjoying lake life? Invest today and begin making years of memories tomorrow.

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $295,000 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed, 2 Bath Lakeview Home - Fully Furnished & Move-In Ready. Come enjoy lake living in this quaint, conveniently located subdivision. You'll appreciate the easy access from this prime location to all shopping, schools, entertainment & restaurants. This home boasts a warm welcome from the glow of the fireplace along the wood ceilings and floors. Also offering character, comfort, and broad spanning beautiful lake views. Step outside to two spacious decks overlooking the lake, perfect for morning coffee or evening sunsets. The home also features an enclosed patio for additional relaxing or entertaining space year-round. This property is fully and tastefully furnished, even a washer/dryer making it a true turnkey opportunity—just bring your suitcase. Isn't it time you start enjoying lake life? Invest today and begin making years of memories tomorrow.

19. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus Closed 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Lake Ozark. This second-tier property is fully furnished and is move in ready! Also offering lake views, easy access to the 17-mile marker and just minutes from the Bagnell Dam Strip. You’re close to restaurants, shopping, and attractions for a vibrant lakeside lifestyle! Inside, the living area features warm, solid oak paneling and a cozy fireplace. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living room to the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space. On the lower-level, the walk out master suite provides privacy with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. A standout feature is the three-seasons room, a tranquil space to enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Step onto the deck or patio to relax, grill, or entertain while appreciating the natural surroundings. This home combines comfort, convenience, and lake charm. Whether a permanent residence, vacation getaway, or investment, this is a rare opportunity to own a retreat near all Lake Ozark has to offer. * * Basement square footage included in total square footage.

20. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Lake Ozark. This second-tier property is fully furnished and is move in ready! Also offering lake views, easy access to the 17-mile marker and just minutes from the Bagnell Dam Strip. You’re close to restaurants, shopping, and attractions for a vibrant lakeside lifestyle! Inside, the living area features warm, solid oak paneling and a cozy fireplace. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living room to the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space. On the lower-level, the walk out master suite provides privacy with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. A standout feature is the three-seasons room, a tranquil space to enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Step onto the deck or patio to relax, grill, or entertain while appreciating the natural surroundings. This home combines comfort, convenience, and lake charm. Whether a permanent residence, vacation getaway, or investment, this is a rare opportunity to own a retreat near all Lake Ozark has to offer. * * Basement square footage included in total square footage.

21. 2025-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Lake Ozark. This second-tier property is fully furnished and is move in ready! Also offering lake views, easy access to the 17-mile marker and just minutes from the Bagnell Dam Strip. You’re close to restaurants, shopping, and attractions for a vibrant lakeside lifestyle! Inside, the living area features warm, solid oak paneling and a cozy fireplace. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living room to the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space. On the lower-level, the walk out master suite provides privacy with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. A standout feature is the three-seasons room, a tranquil space to enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Step onto the deck or patio to relax, grill, or entertain while appreciating the natural surroundings. This home combines comfort, convenience, and lake charm. Whether a permanent residence, vacation getaway, or investment, this is a rare opportunity to own a retreat near all Lake Ozark has to offer. * * Basement square footage included in total square footage.

22. 2025-04-03
    listed $250,000 Active 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Lake Ozark. This second-tier property is fully furnished and is move in ready! Also offering lake views, easy access to the 17-mile marker and just minutes from the Bagnell Dam Strip. You’re close to restaurants, shopping, and attractions for a vibrant lakeside lifestyle! Inside, the living area features warm, solid oak paneling and a cozy fireplace. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living room to the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space. On the lower-level, the walk out master suite provides privacy with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. A standout feature is the three-seasons room, a tranquil space to enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Step onto the deck or patio to relax, grill, or entertain while appreciating the natural surroundings. This home combines comfort, convenience, and lake charm. Whether a permanent residence, vacation getaway, or investment, this is a rare opportunity to own a retreat near all Lake Ozark has to offer. * * Basement square footage included in total square footage.

23. 2014-03-03
    soldstatus
24. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus
25. 2013-11-14
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,888/yr (+$157/mo · 227.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$16,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School Of The Osage
• NCES district ID: 2927630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,443
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4644
• State rank: #112 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake Ozark

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #13152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ozark, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,931

Population outlook (Miller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,396 people
• By 2030: 25,344 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 24,740 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 23,415 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 19,426 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,742 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Miller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.8pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+65.7 2016: R+66.0 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+36.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.92%
• Current HPI: 154.9098
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+133.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $280,000 LOBR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $295,000 LOBR
• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2025-04-07 Contingent — LOBR
• 2025-04-03 Listed $250,000 LOBR
• 2014-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2013-11-14 Listed $119,900 LOBR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $828 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.