221 Elm Grove St

Loudon, TN 37774

$189,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $552/mo
• Annual: $6,622/yr
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#190 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $153k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Loudon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.