221 Elm Grove St · Loudon, TN 37774

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1988 0.40 ac lot $148/sqft · 5% above area Est $180k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated in 2022 ready for the new owners. This single wide 3 bedroom and 2 full baths offers New roof, windows, siding, gutters, porch. New kitchen including new cabinets, countertops, new appliances including refrigerator. All new laminated floors, no carpet. New paint, light fixtures and plumbing fixtures. Both bathrooms are completely remodeled ed walk-in showers. New HVAC unit. The home is affixed to the property. This house is only in need of a new owner. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New siding
• New hvac
• New gutters

Tags

• REMODELED IN 2022
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW HVAC
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Not attached (detached); Building area approximately 1,280 (source: tax records)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Loudon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#190 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $153k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 5.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,554
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $49,364
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37774

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Bateman Ln Loudon, TN	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	11d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,000 Active 1579-char remark
17. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $153,400
18. 2022-12-27
    soldstatus $153,400 Closed 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Completely renovated in 2022 ready for the new owners. This single wide 3 bedroom and 2 full baths offers New roof, windows, siding, gutters, porch. New kitchen including new cabinets, countertops, new appliances including refrigerator. All new laminated floors, no carpet. New paint, light fixtures and plumbing fixtures. Both bathrooms are completely remodeled ed walk-in showers. New HVAC unit. The home is affixed to the property. This house is only in need of a new owner. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2022-11-22
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Completely renovated in 2022 ready for the new owners. This single wide 3 bedroom and 2 full baths offers New roof, windows, siding, gutters, porch. New kitchen including new cabinets, countertops, new appliances including refrigerator. All new laminated floors, no carpet. New paint, light fixtures and plumbing fixtures. Both bathrooms are completely remodeled ed walk-in showers. New HVAC unit. The home is affixed to the property. This house is only in need of a new owner. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2022-11-19
    listed $144,900 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Completely renovated in 2022 ready for the new owners. This single wide 3 bedroom and 2 full baths offers New roof, windows, siding, gutters, porch. New kitchen including new cabinets, countertops, new appliances including refrigerator. All new laminated floors, no carpet. New paint, light fixtures and plumbing fixtures. Both bathrooms are completely remodeled ed walk-in showers. New HVAC unit. The home is affixed to the property. This house is only in need of a new owner. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus $14,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Almost 1/2 acre lot in country setting. No Restrictions. Well, Septic and Electricity on the land. There is a older model single wide manufactured home that could possibly be renovated or removed. Lake and boat ramp nearby.

22. 2020-07-03
    listed $20,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Almost 1/2 acre lot in country setting. No Restrictions. Well, Septic and Electricity on the land. There is a older model single wide manufactured home that could possibly be renovated or removed. Lake and boat ramp nearby.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $3,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$922
• After-tax cash flow: $5,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Loudon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #15214

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudon County · 54,472 people
• City population: 21,784
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 21,784
• Household income: $87,718
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 200.0

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.04%
• Current HPI: 320.0874
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+845.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $189,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $153,400 Public Records
• 2022-12-27 Sold (MLS) $153,400 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-11-22 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-11-19 Listed $144,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-08-17 Sold (MLS) $14,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-07-03 Listed $20,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $282 · -23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.