415 E Johnson St

Fairfield, IL 62837

$64,500B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 834 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $255/mo
• Annual: $3,058/yr
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.94%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $18,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($857 rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($446 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairfield Comm H S District 225 (town): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #725 of 919 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Comm High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 449 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wayne County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $64k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.