415 E Johnson St · Fairfield, IL 62837

$64,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 834 sqft · Other · 60 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming bungalow featuring an open floor plan and stylish updates throughout. New luxury vinyl flooring flows seamlessly through the home, complemented by fresh neutral interior paint. Offers 2 comfortable bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including one with a convenient laundry area. Enjoy the enclosed front porch for added living space and a covered rear deck-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a detached carport, storage shed, and a desirable corner lot. Durable metal roof and low-maintenance vinyl siding. Move-in ready for an owner-occupant or an excellent opportunity for a rental investment.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Detached carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED REAR DECK
• DETACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area sourced from appraiser; Property offers school bus service; Located in an unincorporated area of Fairfield; directions: E Johnston St at corner of E Johnson St and Park Ave
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community amenities nearby: park, pool, lake, street lights, paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with room for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (standard); Natural gas
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story design; Fee simple ownership; Rehab completed in 2025
• Construction: Built approximately 81–90 years ago; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Partial unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions 54 x 112 x 82 x 109; Less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (10 x 14)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; master bedroom on main level (9 x 11); Second bedroom on main level (9 x 9)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring throughout main living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Unfinished partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (9 x 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($857 rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairfield Comm H S District 225 (town): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #725 of 919 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Comm High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 449 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($446 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $64k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,565 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.94%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $31,353
• Equity at exit: $36,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $80,636
• Equity at exit: $63,776

Cash invested: $18,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62837

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $64,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $273	+0% $255	+5% $237	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $221	+0% $255	+5% $289	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $271	base $255	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,125
• Closing costs: $1,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,500 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,500 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,500 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,500 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,500 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,500 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,500 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,500 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,500 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,500 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $64,500 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,500 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,500 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,500 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,500 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $68,500 Active
18. 2015-09-17
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 57.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,613
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$822
• − Management: −$822
• − Depreciation: −$1,876
• Taxable income: $2,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$514
• After-tax cash flow: $2,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield Comm H S District 225
• NCES district ID: 1726180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,920
• Composite: 19.89/100
• National rank: #13889
• State rank: #725 of 919 in IL

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 7,924

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,695 people
• By 2030: 15,277 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,526 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 13,826 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 12,049 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 9,912 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.9) · D 14.0% · R 84.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -70.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.9 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+71.7 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Current HPI: 120.4194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+95.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $68,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $682 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.