209 Kell Rd

Catron, MO 63833

$20,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $611/mo
• Annual: $7,331/yr
• Cap rate: 42.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.91%
• DSCR: 6.82
• 1% rule: 4.78%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $738 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $600 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#887 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Madrid County R-I (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #291 of 324 in MO (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: New Madrid Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 280 students, 100% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #483 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 400 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in New Madrid County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Madrid County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.