209 Kell Rd · Catron, MO 63833

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Other public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1976 0.33 ac lot ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell. Schedule your viewing today. Investment property or primary home that needs some TLC.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.325 acre (dimensions: 80 x 120 + 50 x 70); Gravel road frontage on a city street; No pool
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available (220 volts)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Private ownership; One level; Fixer condition
• Construction: Concrete and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built/area information from appraiser
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard; Front yard; Outbuilding / shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen facilities
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Electric cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#887 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Madrid County R-I (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #291 of 324 in MO (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: New Madrid Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 280 students, 100% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #483 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 400 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in New Madrid County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $738 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $600 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• New Madrid County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.91%
• DSCR: 6.82
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $41,336
• Equity at exit: $8,993

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.54×
• Total profit: $92,652
• Equity at exit: $13,859

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63833

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $183

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $20,000 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $20,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $20,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-04-27
   listed $20,000 Active 103-char remark
10. 2025-12-18
    price $25,000
11. 2025-11-17
    price $29,000
12. 2025-10-13
    listed $32,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $378 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $7,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $5,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Madrid County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2900004
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,286
• Composite: 20.64/100
• National rank: #8543
• State rank: #291 of 324 in MO

Livability — Catron

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #25406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catron, MO
• Population (ZIP): 147

Population outlook (New Madrid County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,712 people
• By 2030: 15,845 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 14,152 · -15.3%
• By 2050: 12,604 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 9,478 · -43.3%
• By 2100: 7,157 · -57.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Iranian 5% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New Madrid

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.5) · D 22.9% · R 76.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -53.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.5 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+20.3 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $20,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $25,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $29,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listed $32,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.