10910 Turner Blvd #149

Frederick, CO 80504

$104,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,247/mo
• Annual: $14,970/yr
• Cap rate: 20.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.97%
• DSCR: 3.27
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grand View Elementary (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #581 of 966 statewide, top 61%, 444 students, 27% FRL); Mead High School (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #137 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,119 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $105k implies a 499% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.9% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.