49 Elbow Rd

Brushton, NY 12966

$20,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $808/mo
• Annual: $9,696/yr
• Cap rate: 54.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 173.14%
• DSCR: 8.70
• 1% rule: 5.99%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#928 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Brushton-Moira Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #503 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $20k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.