49 Elbow Rd · Brushton, NY 12966

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1850 0.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Alert! 🔨💰 Opportunity awaits with this 'as-is' property--perfect for handy buyers, flippers, or anyone looking to bring their vision to life. The county currently recognizes the home as a 3-bedroom; however, please note that one of the 'bedrooms' is a pass-through landing at the top of the stairs, which must be accessed to reach another bedroom--offering a unique layout with potential for reconfiguration. This home is ready for renovation and priced accordingly, making it an ideal project for those looking to build equity or add to their investment portfolio. With the right updates and creativity, this property could truly shine. Cash or renovation financing likely best suited.

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1850

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#928 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Brushton-Moira Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #503 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $20k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 173.14%
• DSCR: 8.70
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.14×
• Total profit: $62,373
• Equity at exit: $18,018

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.58×
• Total profit: $143,244
• Equity at exit: $38,856

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12966

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $815	+0% $808	+5% $801	+10% $794
Rent	-10% $713	-5% $761	+0% $808	+5% $855	+10% $903
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $813	base $808	+0.5pp $803	+1.0pp $798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $20,000
3. 2026-03-28
   listed $30,000 Active
4. 2016-09-23
   listed $7,755
5. 2016-05-27
   soldstatus $7,755
6. 2007-10-05
   soldstatus $47,700
7. 2007-01-25
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $9,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $7,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brushton-Moira Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605820
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $40,096
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #5000
• State rank: #503 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brushton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #928
• US rank: #18086

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,962

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Iranian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 297.6735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $20,000 ACVMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $30,000 ACVMLS
• 2016-09-23 Listed $7,755 ACVMLS
• 2016-05-27 Sold (MLS) $7,755 ACVMLS
• 2007-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,700 Public Records
• 2007-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,073 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.