266 Moulson St

Rochester, NY 14621

$169,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,753/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (10.3% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $152k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $170k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,524/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2756% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.