5751 N Kolb Rd #18201

Catalina Foothills, AZ 85750

$225,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 944 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$309
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-160/mo
• Annual: $-1,926/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (13.6% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Catalina Foothills Unified District (4410) (suburban): math 55% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #15 of 249 in AZ (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Catalina Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?