1445 Village Pines Ave

Coos Bay, OR 97420

$149,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $1,104/mo
• Annual: $13,250/yr
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.76%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#257 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary School (295 students, 69% FRL); Sunset School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #377 of 412 statewide, top 93%, 360 students, 56% FRL); Marshfield Senior High School (math 17% / reading 54%, grade F, #89 of 143 statewide, top 62%, 835 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $149k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.2% in Coos Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,572/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 799% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.