1445 Village Pines Ave · Coos Bay, OR 97420

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Other public records · 250 Days on market

Built 1988 $92/sqft · 8% below area Est $161k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

Key facts

• Large closet
• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• DINING AREA
• LARGE CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.2% in Coos Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#257 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,572/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 799% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $149k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.76%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,365
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -7.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $59,750
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $204,349
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97420

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,009/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $1,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,146	+0% $1,104	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,020
Rent	-10% $901	-5% $1,003	+0% $1,104	+5% $1,206	+10% $1,307
Rate	-1.0pp $1,179	-0.5pp $1,142	base $1,104	+0.5pp $1,066	+1.0pp $1,026

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
971 Inlet Loop Coos Bay, OR	3.0	3.0	1792	$3,150	$1.76	45d	1	0.46mi
949 Blanco Ave Coos Bay, OR	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	45d	1	0.52mi
455 N Cammann St Coos Bay, OR	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,000	$1.89	45d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 232 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 231 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 230 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 229 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 228 DOM
18. 2026-02-24
    status Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

19. 2026-02-06
    status Pending 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

20. 2026-01-15
    status Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

21. 2026-01-15
    price $159,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

22. 2025-09-13
    listed $169,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Lovingly updated Three Bed/Two Bath in Shorepines Village. Sip your morning coffee and enjoy the adjacent pond, putter around the deck and plant some flowers, or enjoy baking in the spacious kitchen. Great floor plan with two separate living areas AND dining area. Spacious primary suite with large closet and bathroom, two great spare bedrooms with hall bath. Make an appointment to view today!

23. 2014-07-28
    soldstatus $48,000 Sold 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Well Maintained 1,620 sq. ft. MFH in Shorepines Bay Village 55 & over park. 3 Br. 2 Ba. Family Room, Dining Room, Spacious Living Room & Utility. Master Bath w/Jet Tub/Shower & Walk-in Closet. Gourmet Kitchen. 9'6" x 30 ft. Shop w/Concrete Floor, Work Bench & Heated. Carport & room to park up to 3 vehicles. Lake Front on Mariana Lake.

24. 2014-07-02
    status Pending 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Well Maintained 1,620 sq. ft. MFH in Shorepines Bay Village 55 & over park. 3 Br. 2 Ba. Family Room, Dining Room, Spacious Living Room & Utility. Master Bath w/Jet Tub/Shower & Walk-in Closet. Gourmet Kitchen. 9'6" x 30 ft. Shop w/Concrete Floor, Work Bench & Heated. Carport & room to park up to 3 vehicles. Lake Front on Mariana Lake.

25. 2014-06-18
    listed $55,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Well Maintained 1,620 sq. ft. MFH in Shorepines Bay Village 55 & over park. 3 Br. 2 Ba. Family Room, Dining Room, Spacious Living Room & Utility. Master Bath w/Jet Tub/Shower & Walk-in Closet. Gourmet Kitchen. 9'6" x 30 ft. Shop w/Concrete Floor, Work Bench & Heated. Carport & room to park up to 3 vehicles. Lake Front on Mariana Lake.

26. 2011-03-01
    soldstatus $22,500 Sold
27. 2011-02-09
    status Pending
28. 2010-11-23
    price $29,500
29. 2010-10-07
    price $32,900 Active
30. 2010-10-07
    status Active
31. 2010-10-07
    historical
32. 2010-08-26
    price $34,900
33. 2010-06-11
    status Active
34. 2010-06-04
    historical
35. 2010-05-11
    listed $39,900 Active
36. 2009-06-03
    soldstatus $60,000
37. 2009-05-05
    historical
38. 2008-07-07
    listed $69,900
39. 2000-01-17
    soldstatus $9,733
40. 1999-08-21
    soldstatus $39,000
41. 1999-08-03
    soldstatus $33,000
42. 1999-06-04
    soldstatus $16,000
43. 1999-06-01
    soldstatus $28,000
44. 1999-01-04
    listed $42,500
45. 1998-10-15
    soldstatus $17,500
46. 1998-09-22
    soldstatus $39,000
47. 1998-06-17
    soldstatus $33,000
48. 1998-04-27
    soldstatus $40,000
49. 1998-03-12
    soldstatus $8,000
50. 1998-03-01
    soldstatus $36,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,009 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥76°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,009
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $11,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,757
• After-tax cash flow: $10,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coos Bay SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4103660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,630
• Composite: 25.46/100
• National rank: #7450
• State rank: #45 of 58 in OR

Livability — Coos Bay

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #17474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coos Bay, OR
• County: Coos County · 27,621 people
• City population: 27,621
• Metro: Coos Bay, OR
• Population (ZIP): 27,621
• Household income: $61,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 799.0

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,222 people
• By 2030: 61,120 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 58,478 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 56,819 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 54,915 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 51,403 · -17.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.58%
• Current HPI: 198.3249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Metro: Coos Bay, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+400.9% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $159,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $169,000 RMLS
• 2014-07-28 Sold (MLS) $48,000 RMLS
• 2014-07-02 Pending — RMLS
• 2014-06-18 Listed $55,000 RMLS
• 2011-03-01 Sold (MLS) $22,500 RMLS
• 2011-02-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2010-11-23 Price Changed $29,500 RMLS
• 2010-10-07 Relisted — RMLS
• 2010-10-07 Price Changed $32,900 RMLS
• 2010-10-07 Delisted — RMLS
• 2010-08-26 Price Changed $34,900 RMLS
• 2010-06-11 Relisted — RMLS
• 2010-06-04 Delisted — RMLS
• 2010-05-11 Listed $39,900 RMLS
• 2009-06-03 Sold (MLS) $60,000 RMLS
• 2009-05-05 Delisted — RMLS
• 2008-07-07 Listed $69,900 RMLS
• 2000-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $9,733 Public Records
• 1999-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-03 Sold (MLS) $33,000 RMLS
• 1999-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-04 Listed $42,500 RMLS
• 1998-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1998-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,900 Public Records
• 1997-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $31,742 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,009 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.