309 1st St

Nacogdoches, TX 75961

$102,600C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,055 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$538
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,523/yr
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $28,728

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $709 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#252 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Nacogdoches ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #688 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emeline Carpenter El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 384 students, 96% FRL); Mcmichael Middle (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 1,390 students, 82% FRL); Nacogdoches H S (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 1,772 students, 77% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.3% in Nacogdoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.