309 1st St · Nacogdoches, TX 75961

$102,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,055 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1946 0.52 ac lot $50/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,055 sq ft with both a living room and family room, plus a dedicated dining area—perfect for flexible living or rental potential. Situated in Nacogdoches just minutes from Stephen F. Austin State University, this property features a large fenced backyard and great layout. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and campus. Don't miss this chance to own a generously sized home in Nacogdoches, TX! Sold AS IS

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1946

Tags

• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.3% in Nacogdoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#252 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, commute F.
• Nacogdoches ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #688 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $709 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,444 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,893
• List price: $102,600
• Delta: -53.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-8,458
• Equity at exit: $15,298

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,384
• Equity at exit: $8,871

Cash invested: $28,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75961

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$538
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,816/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $102,600

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $156	+0% $127	+5% $98	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $80	+0% $127	+5% $174	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $153	base $127	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,650
• Closing costs: $3,078
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,055 sq ft with both a living room and family room, plus a dedicated dining area—perfect for flexible living or rental potential. Situated in Nacogdoches just minutes from Stephen F. Austin State University, this property features a large fenced backyard and great layout. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and campus. Don't miss this chance to own a generously sized home in Nacogdoches, TX! Sold AS IS

2. 2026-03-18
   price $102,600 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,055 sq ft with both a living room and family room, plus a dedicated dining area—perfect for flexible living or rental potential. Situated in Nacogdoches just minutes from Stephen F. Austin State University, this property features a large fenced backyard and great layout. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and campus. Don't miss this chance to own a generously sized home in Nacogdoches, TX! Sold AS IS

3. 2026-02-24
   price $108,300 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,055 sq ft with both a living room and family room, plus a dedicated dining area—perfect for flexible living or rental potential. Situated in Nacogdoches just minutes from Stephen F. Austin State University, this property features a large fenced backyard and great layout. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and campus. Don't miss this chance to own a generously sized home in Nacogdoches, TX! Sold AS IS

4. 2026-02-06
   historical
5. 2026-02-05
   listed $114,000 Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,055 sq ft with both a living room and family room, plus a dedicated dining area—perfect for flexible living or rental potential. Situated in Nacogdoches just minutes from Stephen F. Austin State University, this property features a large fenced backyard and great layout. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and campus. Don't miss this chance to own a generously sized home in Nacogdoches, TX! Sold AS IS

6. 2026-01-16
   listed $122,000 Active
7. 2026-01-15
   listed $122,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,816
• − Insurance: −$513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$2,985
• Taxable loss: −$36
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nacogdoches ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832090
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,759
• Composite: 22.98/100
• National rank: #7983
• State rank: #688 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nacogdoches

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #5962

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nacogdoches, TX
• County: Nacogdoches County · 53,896 people
• City population: 53,896
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,183
• Household income: $41,495
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1295.0

Population outlook (Nacogdoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,553 people
• By 2030: 66,920 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 66,833 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 66,462 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 65,710 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 62,321 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nacogdoches

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.2% · R 69.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+31.3 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+36.2 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.75%
• Current HPI: 163.4176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $102,600 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $108,300 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $114,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $122,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $122,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,816 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.