430 Dry Trl

Sunny Slopes, CA 93546

$399,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1970 · Other · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $-333/mo
• Annual: $-3,997/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,188 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, employment F.
• Mammoth Unified (town): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #549 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.