5 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,814 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,312/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,879
Tax + insurance
−$736
HOA
−$268
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$695
Net cashflow
$-1,267/mo
Annual
$-15,206/yr
Cap rate
3.52%
Cash-on-cash
-9.89%
DSCR
0.56
1% rule
0.60%
Cash to close
$153,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (40.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (39.7% below list).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $325k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#23 in CO, #2,639 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
Academy School District No. 20 In The County Of El Paso An (urban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #8 of 86 in CO (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Chinook Trail Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #26 of 966 statewide, top 4%, 631 students, 8% FRL); Eagleview Middle School (math 42% / reading 59%, grade C, #38 of 270 statewide, top 14%, 948 students, 14% FRL); Pine Creek High School (math 53% / reading 77%, grade B, #31 of 381 statewide, top 8%, 1,815 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
CashFlowRE · CFR-R05QHY0XA3A8E2
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29