40440 Big Fall Creek Rd

Lowell, OR 97438

$375,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 507 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-699/mo
• Annual: $-8,389/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-699 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (46.5% below list).
• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#161 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowell SD 71 (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #115 of 183 in OR (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.