40440 Big Fall Creek Rd · Lowell, OR 97438

$375,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 507 Days on market

Built 1976 5.06 ac lot $302/sqft · 15% below area Est $443k · 15% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreaming of living off the grid, privacy, with room to have a garden and animals? This home could be just what you're looking for! This home has two bedrooms on the main level with a large loft upstairs. Solar panels, hand pumps for water in the bathroom and kitchen, blueberry bushes, and a garden area. You have your choice of an antique cookstove or a propane stove. Water is from an artesian spring. New roof. The possibilities are endless with this property, while still having stores or other amenities in Lowell, Pleasant Hill or Springfield if you choose. Buyer to do their own due diligence. Seller is motivated.

Key facts

• Blueberry bushes
• Propane stove
• Garden area

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• HAND PUMPS
• BLUEBERRY BUSHES
• GARDEN AREA
• ANTIQUE COOKSTOVE
• PROPANE STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-699 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (46.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#161 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowell SD 71 (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #115 of 183 in OR (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,501 (46.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,718
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -15.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40040 Place Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-2%)	12mo	$527,500	$433	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $42,806
• Equity at exit: $213,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $167,177
• Equity at exit: $369,640

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97438

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,923/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $251,502

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 507 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 506 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 505 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 504 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 502 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 499 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 498 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 497 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 496 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 492 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 491 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 490 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 489 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 488 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $375,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Dreaming of living off the grid, privacy, with room to have a garden and animals? This home could be just what you're looking for! This home has two bedrooms on the main level with a large loft upstairs. Solar panels, hand pumps for water in the bathroom and kitchen, blueberry bushes, and a garden area. You have your choice of an antique cookstove or a propane stove. Water is from an artesian spring. New roof. The possibilities are endless with this property, while still having stores or other amenities in Lowell, Pleasant Hill or Springfield if you choose. Buyer to do their own due diligence. Seller is motivated.

16. 2025-01-27
    listed $395,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Dreaming of living off the grid, privacy, with room to have a garden and animals? This home could be just what you're looking for! This home has two bedrooms on the main level with a large loft upstairs. Solar panels, hand pumps for water in the bathroom and kitchen, blueberry bushes, and a garden area. You have your choice of an antique cookstove or a propane stove. Water is from an artesian spring. New roof. The possibilities are endless with this property, while still having stores or other amenities in Lowell, Pleasant Hill or Springfield if you choose. Buyer to do their own due diligence. Seller is motivated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,638 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,714/yr (+$143/mo · 89.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,923
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$15,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowell SD 71
• NCES district ID: 4107590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,769
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #115 of 183 in OR

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #9373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,218

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.05%
• Current HPI: 289.3649
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $375,000 RMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $395,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,923 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.