189 Ontario Ave

Massapequa, NY 11758

$648,888D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$690
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-803/mo
• Annual: $-9,640/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $181,689

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-803 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $416k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in NY, #1,242 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Plainedge Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #88 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $649k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Massapequa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.