1477 Artesia Ave

Homestead Valley, CA 92284

$220,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,657/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-282/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-282/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $220k implies a 557% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.