1519 Vista Rd

Manheim, PA 17601

$300,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,887 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,896/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#236 in PA, #2,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Manheim Township SD (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 539 in PA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nitrauer Sch (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #123 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 466 students, 33% FRL); Manheim Twp Ms (math 34% / reading 63%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 955 students, 32% FRL); Manheim Twp Hs (math 81% / reading 24%, grade C-, #107 of 437 statewide, top 25%, 1,899 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.5% in Manheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.