499 Valley Rd

Lumpkin, GA 31815

$125,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-39/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#587 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 35% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #141 of 187 in GA (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart County Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 192 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 96 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 119 students, 100% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stewart County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stewart County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.