499 Valley Rd · Lumpkin, GA 31815

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1997 1.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained manufactured home situated on approximately 1.57 acres in Lumpkin, GA! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers peaceful country living with spacious outdoor space and a comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. Enjoy the privacy of a rural setting while still being conveniently located near local amenities. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this property offers excellent value at $125,000. Property is being sold as-is. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 1.57 acre lot
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 499 Valley Rd, Lumpkin, GA; Directions available from I-185 S to Valley Rd

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: 1.57-acre lot; No subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: 2 full bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#587 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 35% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #141 of 187 in GA (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart County Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 192 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 96 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 119 students, 100% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stewart County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,935 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,867
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $53,259
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31815

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,529

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $40	+0% $-3	+5% $-46	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-46	+0% $-3	+5% $40	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $29	base $-3	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 1304590
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $26,971
• Composite: 27.25/100
• National rank: #12434
• State rank: #141 of 187 in GA

Livability — Lumpkin

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #587
• US rank: #25966

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,989

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,873 people
• By 2030: 6,241 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 6,569 · +11.9%
• By 2050: 6,461 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 5,819 · -0.9%
• By 2100: 5,086 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 58.0% · R 41.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+19.1 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+27.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $125,000 CBOR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.