41812 Inspiration Ter

Stone Ridge, VA 20105

$479,995D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$319
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-821/mo
• Annual: $-9,847/yr
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $134,399

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-821 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (33.6% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $319k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#207 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lightridge High (math 74% / reading 92%, grade A, #33 of 319 statewide, top 11%, 1,771 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Stone Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($219k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.