2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,046 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Condo
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,270/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,830
Tax + insurance
−$428
HOA
−$833
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$897
Net cashflow
$282/mo
Annual
$3,385/yr
Cap rate
7.49%
Cash-on-cash
4.28%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
1.22%
Cash to close
$97,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $349k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $328k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Tommie Barfield Elementary School (math 84% / reading 75%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 464 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $150k; list at $349k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-R1YZZ7089MESQY
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29