591 Kentucky 467

Worthville, KY 41098

$155,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $564/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($564/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#496 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $155k implies a 377% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.