591 Kentucky 467 · Worthville, KY 41098

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1900 1.00 ac lot Est $165k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

1477 sq ft house with recent updated roof, bathroom shower, HVAC, paint, flooring 5 yrs ago. Gravel purchased for a gravel patio. Stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer to remain.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Stove
• Gravel patio

Tags

• UPDATED ROOF
• BATHROOM SHOWER
• HVAC
• GRAVEL PATIO
• STOVE
• REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($564/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#496 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $155k implies a 377% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,333 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,432
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Simmons St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	10mo	$175,000	$113	73
15 Crescent Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-8%)	12mo	$245,000	$181	50
26 Eagle Creek Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	19mo	$172,800	$105	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,533
• Equity at exit: $24,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,917
• Equity at exit: $16,474

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41098

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $91	+0% $47	+5% $3	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $-1	+0% $47	+5% $95	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $86	base $47	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   price $155,000
3. 2025-12-25
   listed $168,500 Active
4. 2022-03-28
   soldstatus $32,500
5. 2021-09-20
   soldstatus $32,000
6. 2021-09-20
   soldstatus $32,000
7. 2020-06-30
   listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 225.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$515
• After-tax cash flow: $1,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 2100990
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $41,646
• Composite: 15.0/100
• National rank: #9361
• State rank: #163 of 165 in KY

Livability — Worthville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #25028

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Worthville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,138

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,359 people
• By 2030: 10,058 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 9,465 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 8,788 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 7,079 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 5,066 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 4% Italian 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.9% · R 74.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+10.1 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Current HPI: 177.3618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+288.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $155,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-25 Listed $168,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-20 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-06-30 Listed $39,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.