21 Church St

Waterloo, NY 13165

$188,000B+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,396 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,051
• Net cashflow: $2,571/mo
• Annual: $30,855/yr
• Cap rate: 22.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.61%
• DSCR: 3.61
• 1% rule: 2.66%
• Cash to close: $52,640

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive. Per door: $643/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $188k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Waterloo Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #525 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 4.8% in Waterloo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.