16 Kingsley Rd

West Hills, NY 11743

$849,999D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,250
• Net cashflow: $-1,135/mo
• Annual: $-13,617/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $650k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $595k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $595k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#519 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• South Huntington Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #290 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $520k; list at $850k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.