16 Kingsley Rd · West Hills, NY 11743

$849,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1971 6,098 sqft lot $354/sqft · 17% below area Est $1025k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a home that truly delivers the move-in ready lifestyle today’s buyers are hoping to find. Thoughtfully updated and meticulously maintained, this Huntington residence blends timeless comfort with modern upgrades, creating a space that feels both stylish and functional from the moment you arrive. Inside, hardwood floors flow throughout the home, while the updated eat-in kitchen features quartz countertops, quality cabinetry, double ovens, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The home’s warm and inviting interior offers comfortable living space across every level, including a finished basement ideal for a media room, home office, gy

Key facts

• Finished basement
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• UPDATED GOURMET KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area per plans
• Exterior features: Cedar exterior; Back yard fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Finished full basement; Pull-down attic stairs; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $650k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $595k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $595k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#519 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• South Huntington Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #290 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $520k; list at $850k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $595,028 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,024,858
• List price: $849,999
• Delta: -17.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Christa Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,385 (-1%)	1mo	$858,500	$360	90
1 Oakleaf Ct	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-2%)	4mo	$1,150,000	$489	75
2 Brush Pl	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,100 (-12%)	7mo	$935,000	$445	66
5 Robin Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,080 (-13%)	5mo	$1,175,000	$565	54
4 Club Ct	0.46mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,676 (+12%)	5mo	$1,220,000	$456	50
25A Hartman Hill Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (-8%)	21mo	$900,000	$409	48
31 Artisan Ave	0.56mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,548 (+6%)	12mo	$1,335,000	$524	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-190,556
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-173,858
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11743

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$1,024 /mo · $12,286/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,250
• Net cashflow: $-1,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,387

Max offer price $649,535

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13A Homeland Dr Huntington, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,400	$2.75	1d	1	0.36mi
240 Plainview Rd Woodbury, NY	5.0	3.0	2650	$12,000	$4.53	1d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,999 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,999 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,999 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $849,999 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $849,999 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $849,999 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $849,999 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $849,999 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    listed $849,999 Active 1074-char remark
12. 2021-03-05
    soldstatus $520,000
13. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $353,000
14. 2007-08-08
    soldstatus $449,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,286 · $1,024/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,326 · $1,110/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,039/yr (+$87/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$12,286
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,712
• − Management: −$5,712
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$28,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Huntington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627300
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,630
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2189
• State rank: #290 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #9213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Hills, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,490
• Household income: $183,187
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -659.59%
• Current HPI: 279.0693
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $353,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $449,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,286 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.