2156 Bethlehem Rd

Cottondale, FL 32431

$189,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,281/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (37.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $119k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#649 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Ridge School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 326 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.