532 SE Ponderosa Dr

Madras, OR 97741

$299,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-459/mo
• Annual: $-5,503/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (37.8% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $299k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?