Hwy 119

Pineville, KY 40813

$22,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 319 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $601/mo
• Annual: $7,211/yr
• Cap rate: 41.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.12%
• DSCR: 6.66
• 1% rule: 4.63%
• Cash to close: $6,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($156 loan paydown + $979 appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#195 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.