Hwy 119 · Pineville, KY 40813

$22,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 319 Days on market

Built 1995 0.75 ac lot ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 319 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Building area 1,232 (source: tax records)
• Construction: Construction: Other
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Rolling slope

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling indicated
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#195 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($156 loan paydown + $979 appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.12%
• DSCR: 6.66
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.78×
• Total profit: $42,690
• Equity at exit: $11,871

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.32×
• Total profit: $96,496
• Equity at exit: $19,795

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40813

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $281

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $22,500
3. 2025-06-24
   listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 87% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $7,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $5,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bell County
• NCES district ID: 2100390
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $27,032
• Composite: 26.86/100
• National rank: #7102
• State rank: #91 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pineville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #9690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 321

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Current HPI: 106.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-43.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $22,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $39,900 Knoxville MLS