18415 Hames St SE

McKenna, WA 98597

$399,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Pending · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,357/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#300 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lackamas Elementary (310 students, 55% FRL); Ridgeline Middle School (574 students, 46% FRL); Yelm High School 12 (1,634 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 34% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in McKenna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?