2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
971 sqft ·
Built 1940
· Land
· Active
· 276 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,349/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$92
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$283
Net cashflow
$455/mo
Annual
$5,458/yr
Cap rate
11.81%
Cash-on-cash
19.69%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$27,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: John And Lynn Brawner El (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 798 students, 70% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1110 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.7% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
Major: exterior siding
— The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.
Major: fencing
— The fencing is in poor condition and appears to be rusted.
Major: flooring
— The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
Major: interior walls
— The interior walls have visible damage and peeling paint.
Major: bathroom
— The bathroom appears to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and a lack of maintenance.
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· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29