3918 Wayne St

Houston, TX 77026

$100,000A-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,026 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-863/yr
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-863/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (12.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,539/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?