3918 Wayne St · Houston, TX 77026

$100,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,026 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1940 9,661 sqft lot $49/sqft · 36% below area Est $156k · 36% under ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

1-story 5bed 3bath home in Near North Donovan subdivision with 9000sqft lot ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 35844177, 32158022, 4544794

Key facts

• 9,661 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 173 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-863/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (12.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,539/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,295 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,833
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -35.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,785
• Equity at exit: $50,076

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $46,940
• Equity at exit: $81,408

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,541/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $87,295

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	21d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   1-story 5bed 3bath home in Near North Donovan subdivision with 9000sqft lot ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 35844177, 32158022, 4544794

2. 2026-03-23
   price $100,000 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   1-story 5bed 3bath home in Near North Donovan subdivision with 9000sqft lot ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 35844177, 32158022, 4544794

3. 2025-11-15
   listed $195,000 Active 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   1-story 5bed 3bath home in Near North Donovan subdivision with 9000sqft lot ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 35844177, 32158022, 4544794

4. 2023-10-05
   soldstatus $185,605
5. 2007-05-07
   soldstatus
6. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,541 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,541 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,541
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$2,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $-345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-46.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $185,605 Public Records
• 2007-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,541 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.