11840 Woodland Dr

Lennon, MI 48449

$255,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,080 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,424/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-385/mo
• Annual: $-4,624/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (44.2% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#510 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Durand Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robert Kerr School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 348 students, 63% FRL); Durand Middle School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 276 students, 55% FRL); Durand Area High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 425 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $255k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.